8楼pp_dream
(Another day in paradise)
发表于 2016-11-11 06:36
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For most of us who care deeply about the relationship between the United States and China, the potential election of Donald Trump was a looming specter that haunted the progress we’ve achieved over the past decades in terms of cultural exchange and bilateral economic cooperation.
While traveling across China and other East Asian countries, I received tons of questions and letters from concerned students and parents about the implications of a Trump presidency.
An excerpt from an opinion piece written by Joshua--a top student at a very competitive international school--captures this sentiment quite clearly:
“In some ways, the stereotypes you may have about me are true. I, along with just about every one of my peers, do in fact spend large chunks of our days studying. We all do this in the hope of someday studying in prestigious universities abroad: I dream of eventually going to college in America myself. The very real prospect of Donald Trump becoming the President of the United States has made me reconsider . . . . We are all afraid that America is now slowly moving away from the country we all dreamed of going to school for growing up. And if Donald Trump becomes President, maybe it won’t be.”
This morning’s announcement that Donald Trump pulled off a surprise upset victory was indeed upsetting for most of America. And, I mean that literally. Most of America voted for Hillary Clinton, and she won the popular vote; however, like Al Gore in 2000, she lost the electoral college vote and Donald Trump won the race to 270.
So, as I remind students who ask questions like this and feel the way Joshua clearly feels, most of America voted for a message of inclusiveness and diversity. Trump’s rhetoric was divisive, but his policies (not his proposed policies) will belie his true intent.
Although I was personally disappointed by the election result and even until 11 p.m. last night never thought I would be writing this article (actually, I wrote an article about the implications of Clinton’s win in advance!), there is no reason for uncertainty on the part of Chinese students seeking to study abroad or about the larger picture of U.S.-Chinese relations. The United States political system features numerous checks-and-balances such that the president has leeway to impose his own foreign policy, but doesn’t have anything even close to total control over it. Cooler heads will prevail over the divisive and flamboyant campaign rhetoric that was designed to rile people up and motivate them to go out and vote.
Still, the end to this bitter competition marred by divisive rhetoric and cat-fighting will still come as a welcome relief to most Americans and most of the world. Even most of the top Chinese policymakers are thought to prefer Clinton to Trump despite her presidency likely making the U.S. a more formidable economic rival. For many on both sides of the world, the risks and uncertainties of a Trump presidency would have outweighed any potential benefits to China in terms of overtaking the United States. Regardless of political rhetoric, the relationship between the United States and China is important to politicians and citizens in both countries.
Regardless of Trump’s assumption of the presidency in January, the economic cooperation and deepening of the relationship between the United States and China shall continue with only minor speedbumps. As with any global rivals, there will be rough patches. Nonetheless--things like this image below--an picture of a ballot in New York (Trump’s son’s illegally posted ballot picture, in fact) serve as encouraging evidence of the deepening of ties and mutual cultural appreciation between the United States in China. This is certainly the first ballot I’ve ever seen with Chinese characters prominently featured as the second language on the ballot.
With common decency as well as global economic stability as paramount goals for both countries, everyone is hesitant to embrace Trump. However, we’ve already seen much of this overreaction ameliorated even overnight. For instance, futures trading on many financial indices was halted after huge drops in the Dow, SPY, and Asian exchanges; even the Mexican peso was down 10%. All of these “temporary losses” turned into gains when the markets opened this morning, and the initial shock of the election is beginning to wear off.
Still, people are curious. What will Trump’s presidency mean for immigration policies? For H1-B and other visa applicants? For Chinese students coming to America to study?
The answer: We should expect a continuation of many of the same policies of the past decade, and an increase in those that promote economic cooperation. There will be more divisive rhetoric and posturing, but most policies will not change too dramatically.
Here are Trump’s key policy stances in this regard, and their likelihood of being enacted:
1. Ending “Birthright” Citizenship - This is a constitutional right in the United States. If you are born on American soil, you are automatically a U.S. citizen. This language in the constitution was interpreted by the Supreme Court in 1891 in U.S. v. Wong Kim Ark which actually involved a Chinese immigrant, and they ruled in his favor and have held that policy ever since. Asians have been a political target here with many conservatives critical of “birth tourism” in the United States. Like many things on Trump’s agenda, this is all talk. There is not going to be a constitutional amendment, and the Supreme Court is not going to change its mind because it would require a constitutional amendment, which is only possible with a vote of two thirds of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, and then ratification by three fourths of the state legislatures. That’s never going to happen.
2. Limitations on J1-Visa - Trump has been quoted saying that he will abolish the J-1 visa program in favor of a new policy that allows America’s inner city youth to benefit from these opportunities. J-1 visas are educational exchange visas granted for 30 days to allow international folks (students, mostly) to come to the United States for a period of two years as long as they live in a homestay and work in a variety of industries. Live-in Au Pair programs are some of the most popular programs here. This is a very specific type of visa, and one not used very often by Chinese students. For most Chinese students seeking to study abroad, they would use an F-1 visa. The abolition of this type of visa, however, would severely limit the amount of research scholars, professors, and other types of visiting scholars coming to the United States. Given that the goal of Trump’s policy reform would not necessarily be to cut those educational 是否folks out, but to cut out the influx of cheap labor in industries like child care and healthcare, it’s likely that there would be another program or loophole created such that there was no real change for the visiting research scholar-type people
3. Increasing EB-5 Investment Program - In his business career, Trump funded many of his projects including Trump Tower (and has bragged about it) with money from foreign (mainly Chinese) investors who invest cash for visas in programs like the EB-5 program. It is likely that we will see little change to this program substantively, but may even see an increase in these types of visas.
4. Abolishing OPT from F-1 Student Visas - Trump is unlikely to decrease the amount of student visas granted; however, he has discussed ending the Optional Practical Training Program (OPT) which provides a means for international students to work via a F-1 visa for a period of a year or so while not enrolled full-time in school. CPT work--practical training for international students on an F-1 visa for pay--during school is unlikely to change, however.
5. Reforming H-1B Visa Immigration by Increasing Pay Requirements- Trump wants to increase the “prevailing wage” drastically to discourage U.S. companies from hiring workers from China or other Asian countries, even if they are “highly skilled” as per the definition in the statute. India, China, the Philippines, and South Korea are four of the top five countries sending H-1B visa holders to the U.S., and this change would adversely affect that number. However, Trump’s Vice President--Mike Pence--proposed an increase a doubling of the H-1B cap to allow for a rise in visas granted under certain conditions; so, for top graduates who can command high-paying jobs, this won’t be much of a change and could even be a positive change. It is worth noting that Trump’s own wife was on an H-1B visa when she came to the country. H1-Breform is coming, but won’t necessarily be detrimental to most of the highly qualified applicants we see.
Bear in mind that Trump has no clear electoral mandate having lost the popular vote. Although Republicans will control Congress and the White House, they still require Democratic cooperation on a number of issues to push their agenda forward. Many believed Trump is fairly liberal policy-wise despite his “America First” rhetoric, and his past political contributions and activity point to that fairly strongly. I expect him to become much more moderate while in office than he was throughout his campaign. While statistics and polls served us poorly in this election, it was always clear that whoever won this election was likely to be a one-term president. This means that, for most international students seeking to study in the United States, Trump will be out of office by the time you graduate from college and are seeking to use OPT or obtain an H1-B visa. Given that there will be no decrease or other policies that could potentially disadvantage F-1 visa seekers, the result will not much of a change for most Chinese students seeking to study abroad in America.
We’ll keep you posted on any important policy changes, which would likely come within the first 100 days of Trump’s presidency (from January to April), and how they might affect your goals of working abroad after you complete your studies. For the most part, though, Trump is concerned about illegal immigration from Mexico and refugee flow from other countries and preventing big IT companies and companies like Disney from purposefully outsourcing jobs at lower wages; and, for most of you in China, the good news is that those policy changes will have little to no effect.